It all comes down to the final day: Swindon Town v Chesterfield - talking points
FORTY five games down, one to go, and an example of the play-offs’ ability to keep things bubbling until the last kick.
Two teams going at it on the final day for the chance to stretch their season and maybe end it with a trip to Wembley, the scene is perfectly set for Swindon Town against Chesterfield.
The two are 8th and 7th in a League Two for a reason, both very capable at the level but not consistent enough to be in the top three.
And talking of form, some people might have winced this week at Ian Holloway’s withering assessment of his struggling Swindon side.
“We’re not cutting it, we're not good enough,” said the exasperated manager after the 4-0 collapse at Grimsby. "Gutless,” “fightless,” “horrendous,” “the worst performance any team of mine has given me”.
Harsh words indeed, but the wily Holloway will have used them to wake up his under-performing players.
Swindon can’t be as bad as they were at Blundell Park so Chesterfield must be prepared to face the best version of them this weekend.
They will try and thrive on chaos, throwing balls into the box, knocking their visitors out of their rhythm, making it a battle.
Given Swindon’s need to attack and the instinct of Paul Cook’s teams to do the same, the smart money won’t be on a 0-0 draw.
FORM
With just one loss in the last nine, Chesterfield are in good a place. Of course one more point will be good enough for them. Swindon need all three.
The Robins are carrying the emotional baggage of an automatic promotion tilt gone wrong and there will be a long inquest this summer whether or not they make the play-off cut.
The list of potential play-off opponents shrank after the events of last Saturday.
With Bromley and MK Dons already up and Barnet out of it, that leaves the Spireites and Swindon along with Notts County, Grimsby, Salford and Cambridge as the six candidates for the four play-off spots.
Long-time top-three contenders Cambridge and on-song Salford have their eyes on automatic going into the weekend, Notts County realistically probably less so.
Last six games:
Notts County WLWLLW
Grimsby WWLWWW
Chesterfield WWDWDW
Swindon DDWLDLL
FINAL GAMES
There is an argument to be made that the current positions of the play-off contenders might not change too much over this weekend based on the awkwardness of the fixtures.
Notts County host a Bristol Rovers side flying after eight wins on the spin. Rest assured Steve Evans would love to put a spanner in the works.
Tranmere are hovering a point above the relegation trap door and are going to be nothing less than spiky hosts for Grimsby.
And what about Crawley? Also desperate for points at the bottom, they’re not going to roll over and get their tummies tickled by Salford.
The most straight-forward match looks like Cambridge’s at Crewe.
THE MANAGERS
Paul Cook and Ian Holloway, combined aged 122, know the game inside out and then some.
Margaret Thatcher was Prime Minister when Holloway laced up his boots with Bristol Rovers in 1980.
Cook’s playing experience also stretches back to the 80s.
As managers they’ve won seven promotions between them, Cook’s four to Holloway’s three, and they’re passionate individuals.
It will be lively on the touchline on Saturday.
STICK OR TWIST
Plenty teams needing a point from a big game have parked the bus and come a cropper. Chesterfield surely won’t do that.
If they get the first goal Swindon will then have the weight of the world on their shoulders and the carnival atmosphere will go pop.
THE PLAY-OFFS
The permutations are too complex to go into here.
Should they make the play-offs, the Spireites could get any one of Cambridge, Salford, Notts County or Grimsby depending how the dust settles on Saturday night.
Without wanting to put the kibosh on it, here’s the play-off semi-final dates:
Play-off semi-final first legs
7th vs 4th - Sunday May 10, 3pm
6th vs 5th - Sunday May 10, 6pm
Play-off semi-final second legs
4th vs 7th - Friday May 15, 7.15pm
5th vs 6th - Friday May 15, 8pm
FANCY A BET?
Many bookies have Chesterfield as slight favourites, typically quoted at 6/5 compared to Swindon’s 9/5.
The DT’s prediction is that the Spireites will, ultimately, after a few scares, get the job done.
Agree?