This is the probability of Chesterfield, Walsall, Notts County and AFC Wimbledon winning the League Two play-offs, according to online bookmakers
On-form Spireites pinched a play-off place on a dramatic final day of the season at Accrington.
They rode their luck in the closing stages with Stanley hitting the woodwork twice, but it’s the sort of fortune that can often lead to success.
It sets up a semi-final tie with a sinking Walsall side who made a pigs ear of clinching automatic promotion after throwing away a 12 point lead at the top.
But online bookies OBLG believe the Saddlers are a better bet when it comes to winning a place in League One on May 26.
They rate Walsall as 5/2 shots to win the play-offs with a probability of success of 28.6%. That compares to the healthy 4/1 odds being given for Chesterfield, who they believe have a 20% chance of winning at Wembley.
Walsall will face a big task to battle back mentally after they were seconds away from winning automatic promotion to League One until Bradford City scored a 96th minute winner against Fleetwood Town to pinch third place from them in dramatic style.
Boss Mat Saddler has vowed Walsall will attack Spireites as they look to set up a Wembley showdown with either Notts County or AFC Wimbledon.
He said: “Now we go into another chance, a second bite of the cherry. Not what we wanted but we will now go and attack this week. We are fighters, not victims. We will keep going.”
OBLG believe Walsall are most likely to face Notts County (2/1) in the final, who have a 33.3% chance of winning the play-offs. AFC Wimbledon (9/4) are given a 30.4% chance of success.
Spireites will take just over 1,000 fans to the Bescot Stadium for the decisive second leg on May 16.
Get full coverage of the tie here.