Why the early signs are promising for Chesterfield under Paul Cook - what the stats show

Chesterfield are four unbeaten and some of the football on show has got the fanbase very enthused.

Manager Paul Cook has overseen a big turnover, bringing in 12 new faces, but they seem to have settled in well so far.

There is obviously a long way to go, but we have taken a look at what the stats are suggesting about the first four games and what, if anything, we can conclude from them...

xG

This is the measurement used to assess a team’s expected goals based on the quality of chances created.

For example, a shot inside the area is going to have a higher xG rate compared to a strike from 35 yards.

Last season Chesterfield’s overall average xG was 1.34. Although it is still early days, so far it is 1.68. So what does that mean? Basically, they are creating better chances which, in theory, should lead to more goals being scored.

How does the XG compare in the first four matches to the last four games last season? Notts County (1.47), Wrexham (1.73), Aldershot (2.34) and Dorking (1.19) compared to Torquay (0.43), Woking (0.99), Halifax (0.41) and Solihull Moors (1.16). So the improvement is clear to see.

Interestingly, last year’s National League champions Stockport County also had an average xG of 1.68, while play-off winners Grimsby Town’s xG was 1.7. So if Chesterfield can stay around the current level they are at, and defend properly at the other end, they should not be far off come May.

SHOTS

Having a higher xG does mean that a team is necessarily having more shots but, in Chesterfield’s case, they are compared to last season.

Again, it is only a small sample size, but the Spireites are averaging 17.5 shots a match, much higher than the 12.35 average last term.

In fact, Town have already upped their shot count into the 20s in two out of the four matches so far.

Against Dorking, despite playing with 10-men and with Ollie Banks in net for 60 minutes, they had 10 shots, five on target. Aldershot was a huge 25, 10 on target. 21 against Wrexham, eight on target. And 14 at Notts County, three on target.

Whereas towards the end of last season scoring goals looked like a big struggle, this time around they already have different scorers off the mark.

PASSES

This category is probably harder to come to a conclusion because, as we know, Chesterfield had 10-men at Dorking for an hour and they have played a very good possession-based side in Notts County away from home as well as title favourites Wrexham.

Last season the Spireites averaged 327.52 passes in a game, while so far the rate is 297.25.

The performance at home to Aldershot is the one that stands out so far. In that game Town attempted 423 passes, completing 365 of them, equalling a successful percentage of 86.29, the highest since Paul Cook returned to the club. We all saw it with our eyes, it was a top display, and the scoreline would have been bigger with better finishing.

The signs of what we are starting to see now were there at the end of last season, with Cook’s men attempting a massive 500 passes against Dover Athletic (success rate of 83.6%). And in the play-off semi-final defeat at Solihull, they attempted 426 passes, completing 361, giving a very healthy 84.74%.

The fans who remember when Cook was last at the club will not be surprised by these numbers, but it still makes for positive reading.

I think as the season goes on we can expect some more record-breaking numbers to follow.

So, overall, although it is still very early and a small sample size to analyse, the signs are encouraging.