Column: Birth rate decline means the UK is on collision course for economic disaster

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Reform UK like to paint a grim picture of migrants as a burden on our public services, like housing and the NHS, writes guest columnist Kerry Thornton.

But this narrative is not only misleading – it’s dangerously short-sighted. The real challenge we face in the UK is not immigration but the alarming decline in birth rates. With an aging population and shrinking workforce, the UK is on a collision course for economic disaster. Yet, anti-immigration rhetoric dominates the conversation.

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According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK's birth rate fell to 1.49 children per woman in 2022, far below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain the population.

Births have been steady falling since 2010. If this trend continues, we will see school closures, fewer consumers, a shrinking workforce, and a dwindling tax pool for public services. And making a bad situation worse, there will be a larger proportion of older people with increased pension and healthcare needs. Without a steady influx of younger, working-age people, the future looks bleak.

"Without a steady influx of younger, working-age people, the future looks bleak", says guest columnist Kerry Thornton"Without a steady influx of younger, working-age people, the future looks bleak", says guest columnist Kerry Thornton
"Without a steady influx of younger, working-age people, the future looks bleak", says guest columnist Kerry Thornton

It is impossible to have a low-tax, small-state, high-growth economy with falling birth rates and restrictive immigration policies. Politicians need to be honest about the trade-offs – you cannot have it all.

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Contrary to populist claims, immigration is not a drain; it is an economic lifeline. Migrants typically arrive in the UK during their working years, contributing taxes and supporting public services with a relatively low burden on the NHS.

More working-age people mean more tax revenue and a stronger economy. It is an inconvenient truth for Reform UK: immigration makes the UK richer, not poorer.

It’s time to demand serious answers and reject the simplistic scapegoating of migrants by politicians like Nigel Farage and Lee Anderson. Their contradictory policies offer no real solutions.

The future of our nation depends on it.

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